By Edward Chancellor
This booklet makes use of a number of examples to illustrate how the capital cycle method of investments works, and the way it has supplied traders with market-beating returns over the last decade.
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Extra resources for Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002–15
Even the well managed Imperial Oil, with substantial low cost oil and gas assets in Canada (over 100 years of reserves at current production), is now using a forecast of $50–60 per barrel compared to $35–40 ten years ago. Petrobras is aiming to spend $225bn in the next five years and to more than double its already substantial production in the next decade. The Brazilian oil giant assumes the crude oil price will be $80–95 per barrel for the next five years. 8 7 From the date of this article to the end of 2014, Total SA’s share price declined by 9 per cent in US dollars, underperforming the MSCI Europe Index by nearly 26 per cent.
On the supply side, there is an encouraging capital cycle angle as the consolidation process has seen a reduction in brewery capacity, particularly in Europe where the fragmented regional nature of the market meant that there had been persistent overcapacity to be exploited by retailers. Several markets have experienced quite meaningful capacity reduction. In the UK, for example, 10 per cent of brewing capacity was taken out of the market following Heineken’s acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle.
Part of the reason for the boom is demand from emerging countries, notably China and India, whose economies are growing rapidly with high levels of construction and relatively inefficient production. 2 Supply has been constrained by underinvestment in the mid- to late-1990s, when commodity prices were lower. Commodity bulls say that this cycle will be different from previous cycles since better investment discipline is supposedly keeping supply levels in check. Moreover, there is a shortage of mining equipment (a common complaint from mining companies these days).
Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002–15 by Edward Chancellor